Vintage Analysis
Vintage analysis groups MCA originations by funding month or quarter and tracks performance metrics across the portfolio life — the gold-standard methodology for identifying credit deterioration trends and underwriting drift.
Why This Matters
Vintage analysis methodology: group all advances funded in a specific period (e.g., Q1 2025 vintage), then track default rate, charge-off rate, and recovery rate at consistent age points (3, 6, 12, 18 months). Comparing vintage curves reveals whether underwriting is tightening or loosening, whether macro conditions are affecting performance, and whether specific origination channels are producing better or worse credit. Capital providers and rating agencies require vintage curves as standard portfolio diligence.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions
What does vintage analysis reveal?
Underwriting drift (each new vintage performing worse than prior signals deteriorating credit standards), macroeconomic stress (all recent vintages performing worse signals environmental issues), and channel quality (broker vs direct vintages reveal channel risk).
How long until a vintage is mature?
MCA vintages typically mature at 12-18 months — most defaults occur within first 6-9 months given short repayment timelines. Vintages older than 18 months provide stable performance benchmarks.